Brief Description of the Project
Eventually, the DPRK will disarm, either via negotiation with the United States, or via collapse at which time the ROK will take over and disarm the DPRK’s nuclear weapons. Thus, a very wide range of possible scenarios is conceivable for the future of the DPRK, and the set of energy security strategies and options that are promoted in the context of Six Party or bilateral US-DPRK disarmament negotiations need to be robust across the entire spectrum of uncertainty. Also, many significant options from a humanitarian and developmental perspective need to be promoted in the DPRK as part of a “sustainable” disarmament process—but may not be desirable or feasible in the Six Party context which will link tightly energy assistance to DPRK reciprocal denuclearization steps.
Therefore, it is important to ensure that 7th parties (Australian, New Zealand, the EU, Indonesia, Canada, etc) that engage the DPRK with technical and economic assistance do so in ways that reinforce rather than duplicate the Six Party energy security strategies and options implemented in conjunction with the DPRK. This project will convene the “7th parties” to develop this set of options and policy agendas on an informally coordinated basis, in concert with the United States and South Korean energy experts and negotiators who lead the Energy Working Group and bilateral discussions with the DPRK on this topic. This project is thus a pan-sub-regional project in ASI terms.